U.S. CPI report data expected to influence Federal Reserve policy

Global financial markets are focused on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September, scheduled for release on October 14. Analysts are closely monitoring the gap between headline inflation and core inflation. Headline CPI is projected to rise 0.6% from the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while core inflation—excluding food and energy—is expected to rise only 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually.

If the increase is driven primarily by energy costs rather than broad-based price hikes in services or housing, the Federal Reserve may face a different policy dilemma. High energy prices, influenced by Middle East supply risks and Brent crude trading around $103.50 per barrel, could complicate interest rate decisions.

In the commodities market, gold prices are hovering near $4,190 per ounce as investors seek safe havens amid a weakening U.S. dollar and declining 10-year Treasury yields. Global ETF gold holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes in September, reflecting significant institutional interest ahead of the inflation data.