U.S. Critical Minerals Shortfall Undermines 2027 Supply Deadline

President Donald Trump has made eliminating reliance on Chinese critical minerals a national‑security priority, aiming for a Jan. 1 2027 deadline when federal agencies must stop buying rare earths, magnets, tungsten, molybdenum and tantalum from China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. Despite spending tens of billions on roughly 150 U.S. minerals companies, domestic mining and processing remain far below the required levels. In 2025 demand for the most common rare‑earth magnet was about 48,000 metric tons, while U.S. sources supplied only 300 tons; projected output may reach 5,000 tons by year‑end, still a fraction of need. The United States has not produced tungsten since 2015 and tantalum since 1959. An executive order signed last week tightened waiver rules, but industry executives say the infrastructure gap will take many years to close. Companies such as Guardian Metal Resources are planning a new tungsten mine for 2028, and Lion Rock Resources is developing a tantalum project in South Dakota, but timelines remain uncertain. Analyst Chris Berry warned that “it’s going to take many more years to get the needed infrastructure in the ground to compete.” Trump previously posted on Truth Social: “ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES MUST BUY AMERICAN — NO EXCUSES!”