U.S. Defense Policy Shift Threatens NATO's Practical Unity

Security analyst Peter Zeihan argues that a recent policy change by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signals the Trump administration will provide only minimal support to NATO in a major European war. The United States would withhold key capabilities such as aircraft carriers, carrier‑based aircraft, precision‑guided munitions, logistical airlift, air‑defense assets and much of its satellite infrastructure.

Zeihan says this reflects an inability to fight multiple large‑scale conflicts simultaneously, as the U.S. focuses on a possible war with China after the recent Iran engagement. Because NATO was built on U.S. long‑range power projection and European reliance on American systems, the withdrawal could force European nations to adopt cheaper, rapidly producible “Ukrainian‑style” weapons and consider a shared nuclear deterrent. He predicts that within a year the interoperability that binds U.S. and European forces could collapse, functionally ending NATO as it has existed since the Cold War, even if the alliance remains on paper.