US dry bulk shipments to China rise 104% in 2026

US dry bulk shipments to China increased by 104% year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2026, according to BIMCO. This recovery follows a period of weakened trade volumes in 2025 caused by rising tensions and tariffs.

The surge was primarily driven by a 176% increase in grain shipments. Additionally, US coal shipments rose by 44% and petcoke shipments grew by 33%. The increase in petcoke is partly attributed to lower supply volumes from Saudi Arabia to China. The Panamax vessel segment handled 68% of the total cargo volume, while Supramax ships accounted for 28%.

Growth is expected to continue into the fourth quarter as soybean and maize harvests are exported. Demand for US maize may be particularly high due to the halt of Ukrainian seaborne exports following attacks in the Black Sea. Recent trade negotiations have also led to an agreement to provide more favorable tariff treatment for approximately $30 billion worth of goods in each direction, with China’s Ministry of Commerce stating that over 90% of covered products would see the removal of additional bilateral tariffs.