US economic data and booming prediction markets dominate investor attention

Several key US economic indicators are set to be released this week, including services sector data, ADP employment figures, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, unemployment‑benefits claims, existing home‑sale numbers and an International Energy Agency report. Analysts expect these numbers to shape expectations for interest‑rate policy, influencing equity markets and risk‑on assets such as Bitcoin.

At the same time, prediction‑market platforms are experiencing rapid growth. Combined monthly trading volume has reached roughly $24 billion, with Kalshi reporting a record $18 billion and Polymarket exceeding $1 billion in annual revenue. A Google engineer was recently charged by U.S. authorities for using internal search‑trend data to trade on Polymarket. Meta has tasked a team with building an internal prediction‑app, “Arena,” aimed at 100 million monthly users, and is exploring partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket. Regulators are beginning to scrutinise the sector as it expands.