US economic data and earnings season drive market anticipation of Fed rate hike

Investors are entering a volatile five‑day stretch as the second‑quarter earnings season begins and key US economic indicators are set for release. Major banks—including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citibank, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock—will report results, alongside corporations such as Johnson & Johnson, Kinder Morgan, United Airlines, TSMC, Netflix and UnitedHealth.

Economic data due this week includes the US Consumer Price Index on 14 July and the Producer Price Index the following day, with the University of Michigan consumer‑sentiment survey scheduled for Friday. Forecasts call for June CPI to dip 0.1 % month‑on‑month (up 3.8 % YoY) and PPI to also decline 0.1 % month‑on‑month (up 6.2 % YoY). These figures will inform market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, as analysts note mixed signals among Fed members regarding further rate hikes.

Last week the S&P 500 rose 1.2 %, the Nasdaq 1.7 %, while the Dow Jones fell 0.5 %. Market participants will watch the upcoming data to gauge whether the Fed will raise rates by another 0.25 % at its December meeting or adopt a more cautious stance.