US stock futures rise amid Middle East tensions and recession warnings

US stock futures showed modest gains on Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 approaching all-time highs driven by AI-related stocks. This recovery follows a difficult week for the Dow Jones, which saw its third consecutive weekly loss.

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—including reports of Houthi-led attacks on Saudi Arabia and threats between the US and Iran—oil prices have declined. Brent crude fell over 2 percent to approximately $101.72 per barrel, as traders noted that Middle Eastern supply remains more resilient than initially feared.

Financial analysts are also monitoring potential recessionary signals in the US. While monthly job creation remains positive, year-over-year labor market data aligns with patterns seen prior to recessions over the last 40 years. Additionally, projections from the Congressional Budget Office suggest a slowdown in the growth of the working-age population, which could impact long-term economic productivity.