US Fed outlook and chip spending shape global market outlook

Investors are weighing a mix of US monetary policy signals, large semiconductor investments and renewed Middle‑East tension as they head into the new week. Federal Reserve minutes highlighted a continued hawkish stance, with an 88 % probability of a rate hike in September and the launch of five policy working groups. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is slated to speak to Congress, and upcoming US inflation data are expected to influence the pace of future moves.

Technology sector optimism is bolstered by Micron Technology’s pledge of more than $250 billion in US investment through 2035 and SK Hynix’s entry into US chip processing. At the same time, heightened US‑Iran military exchanges have revived geopolitical risk premiums, pushing Brent crude up after a four‑week decline. The IMF has trimmed its global growth forecast to 3 % for 2024 and projected Turkish growth at 2.9 % this year and 3.6 % next year. US 10‑year yields rose to about 4.56 %, the dollar index hovered around 100 and gold prices felt pressure.