US grocery shoppers reduce purchases amid rising food prices

U.S. grocery shoppers are purchasing fewer items as high food prices continue to impact household budgets. While inflation rates are slowing compared to the 11.4% spike seen in 2022, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects food-at-home prices to rise by 2.7% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.

Data from Bain & Co. and NielsenIQ indicate a decline in the number of items purchased during the second half of 2025, a trend that intensified in February 2026. This shift is attributed to several factors, including high gas prices, reduced government food aid, and the increased use of GLP-1 drugs.

In response to rising costs, many consumers are trading down to discount retailers like Walmart, Aldi, and Costco. Store-brand sales reached a record $282.8 billion in 2025 as shoppers seek cheaper alternatives.

According to Instacart, monthly grocery costs vary significantly by household composition and location. For a family of three on a moderate budget, the average monthly cost is approximately $1,061. Regional differences are also notable; for instance, single adults in Hawaii face higher average monthly costs compared to those in Arkansas.