US holiday retail sales projected to exceed $1 trillion

U.S. retail sales during the upcoming November and December holiday season are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, according to a forecast by Bain & Company. This represents an expected 4.5 percent year-over-year increase in nominal terms.

However, analysts note that more than half of this growth is attributed to inflation-driven price increases rather than a significant rise in real consumer demand or unit volumes. This trend places pressure on retailers to focus on profitable growth and margin management rather than just top-line revenue.

The forecast highlights a widening gap between shopping channels. While brick-and-mortar retail is expected to grow by 2.5 percent, online sales are projected to surge by 9 percent. Additionally, consumer behavior is shifting toward new technologies, with one in four respondents planning to use AI platforms to begin their gift searches this winter.