US independent voters lean toward Democrats in new Gallup poll

Recent Gallup polling data indicates that independent voters in the United States are increasingly leaning toward the Democratic Party ahead of the November midterm elections. In the second quarter survey, 49 percent of respondents who do not identify as Republican or Democrat stated they lean Democratic, compared to 39 percent who lean Republican.

This represents a four-percentage-point increase in Democratic leaning among independents since the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, the percentage of voters identifying directly as Democrats has risen to 31 percent, up from 28 percent at the start of Donald Trump’s second term. According to The New York Times, this marks the Democrats' largest advantage over the Republican Party since 2008.

The shift coincides with declining satisfaction regarding President Trump’s performance. Voters have cited rising costs and economic instability as concerns, noting that inflation has remained above the 2 percent target since conflicts in Iran began in February. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have also been cited as factors contributing to decreased support.