US Intelligence Warns Putin May Test NATO Unity with Limited Attack

U.S. intelligence agencies have reassessed the risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch a limited strike against a NATO member to probe the alliance’s resolve. The scenarios under review range from cyber intrusions and sabotage to a small‑scale ground incursion, rather than a full‑scale invasion. The assessment notes that U.S. stockpiles of long‑range missiles and Stinger air‑defence systems are strained after extensive transfers to Ukraine and operations against Iran.

Lithuania’s defence minister has voiced concern that Moscow might stage a false‑flag operation in the Baltics, citing recent drone incursions along Europe’s eastern frontier. Lithuanian intelligence is monitoring the situation, though officials say no direct threat has been identified. Meanwhile, Ukraine has reported a series of long‑range strikes on Russian oil refineries and Black Sea vessels, underscoring the heightened tension in the region.

The warning reflects broader worries that Russia, facing setbacks in Ukraine and domestic pressure, could attempt to undermine NATO cohesion by targeting an ally, thereby testing the credibility of the trans‑Atlantic security pact.