US job market forecast predicts modest Q3 improvement

A new Q3 forecast released by professional‑services firm Toptal projects a modest rebound in the United States labor market. Overall non‑farm employment, which has been declining at an average of 3.5% per quarter, is expected to show slight positive growth in the third quarter. Professional‑services sectors such as accounting, legal and marketing are projected to level off, resulting in essentially flat job growth, while technology‑related employment is forecast to shift from a 5.5% quarterly decline to moderate positive growth.

The report also highlights a faster hiring pace for experienced remote and hybrid workers with five or more years of experience, a segment tracked by analytics firm Lightcast. Growth for this group is projected to accelerate beyond its historical 3.2% quarterly increase. Toptal attributes the improving outlook to easing energy prices, resilience in the U.S. economy and the release of pent‑up hiring demand after a period of uncertainty. The forecast draws on Bureau of Labor Statistics data for overall trends and supplements it with Lightcast analytics for the experienced distributed‑workforce segment.