US labor market shows rebound ahead of June jobs report

U.S. employment growth has accelerated in recent months, with an average of 188,000 jobs added each month since March, a sharp contrast to last year’s sub‑10,000‑job gains. In May the economy added an estimated 172,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% for a third month.

Analysts forecast June’s payroll numbers anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000 jobs, with senior economist Joe Brusuelas expecting around 180,000 and a dip in unemployment to 4.2%. Drivers cited include hiring in goods‑producing and construction firms linked to AI data‑center builds, continued growth in healthcare employment, and a temporary World Cup‑related lift in transportation and hospitality jobs. Wage growth remains modest at about 3.4% annually, lagging behind inflation, while ADP data show median pay gains for job‑stayers at 4.4% and for job‑changers at 6.6%.

These trends suggest the labor market, which had been stalled for 18 months, may be stabilizing and moving toward stronger hiring and better‑paying positions.