US Labor Market: Significant Job Growth Revisions and Decade Outlook

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has implemented massive revisions to employment data, revealing that net non-farm payroll growth for 2025 was revised from an initial 1.2 million to just 116,000, a correction of approximately 90%. Data for 2024 was also revised downward by about 44%. The March 2025 revision was particularly substantial, marking one of the largest downward adjustments since 2009.

Looking toward the 2025–2035 decade, the BLS projects the U.S. economy will add 5.9 million jobs, a 3.5% increase in total employment. This represents slower growth compared to the 10.9% recorded between 2015 and 2025. Growth is expected to be uneven across sectors. Private healthcare and social assistance are projected to add over 2.2 million jobs, accounting for 37% of total gains. Utilities and professional, scientific, and technical services are also expected to see significant growth, driven in part by demand related to artificial intelligence.

In contrast, employment in the federal government and retail trade is projected to decline. The construction industry is expected to grow at a rate of 5.0%, outpacing the overall labor market growth of 3.5%.