U.S. Leading Economic Index declines in August

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States declined by 0.1% in August, marking the first monthly decrease since March. The index reached 99.5 points, performing worse than the 0.1% increase anticipated by analysts.

Key factors contributing to the decline include falling consumer expectations and a decrease in building permits for both single-family and multi-family housing across most regions, with the exception of the West. While the current situation component rose by 0.1% and future expectations rose by 0.2%, the overall six-month growth rate for the LEI has turned slightly negative, signaling potential economic uncertainty.

Other economic data for August shows that U.S. industrial production remained unchanged, while retail sales saw a better-than-expected increase of 1.2%. The Conference Board projects a real GDP increase of 1.9% for 2026, though forecasts for 2027 have been revised downward from 1.9% to 1.8%.