US lenders and businesses adopt cautious outlook amid economic uncertainty

Recent economic surveys indicate a period of cautious sentiment among US lenders and business executives despite modest improvements in overall confidence.

A Q3 2026 survey by J. S. Held reveals that US lenders are becoming increasingly wary due to geopolitical instability, recession risks, and policy uncertainty. Near-term economic performance grades fell, with 39.9% of respondents citing geopolitical risk or war and 30.4% citing US recession as primary near-term concerns. While lenders are adopting more selective underwriting practices, borrowers continue to invest in growth initiatives such as product development and market expansion.

Similarly, the Q3 AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey shows that while optimism regarding the US and global economies rebounded from second-quarter lows, business executives are moderating their spending. Optimism for the US economy rose to 36% from 32% in Q2, but the percentage of organizations planning to expand over the next 12 months declined from 54% to 49%. Companies are maintaining a disciplined approach to capital investments, IT spending, and training while navigating inflation and rising costs.