U.S. military readiness challenged by Russia and China scenarios

A wargame conducted by the Mitchell Institute and reports from the Heritage Foundation have highlighted critical vulnerabilities in United States and NATO military readiness regarding potential multi-front conflicts.

The Mitchell Institute simulation, involving 70 experts, modeled a 2036 scenario where Russia attacks NATO by attempting to sever the Baltic states from the Alliance via the Suwalki Gap. While the simulation suggested NATO could eventually gain air superiority and halt the Russian offensive after two weeks, the situation is complicated by a simultaneous Chinese invasion of Taiwan, forcing the U.S. to manage two major theaters.

Complementing these findings, a Heritage Foundation report warns that U.S. missile stockpiles are insufficient for a prolonged conflict with China. The report notes that inventories of key interceptors—including PAC-3 MSE, THAAD, SM-3, and SM-6—are too low to defend Pacific bases like Andersen Air Force Base on Guam against large-scale Chinese ballistic and maneuvering missile attacks. The complexity and high cost of these systems mean they cannot be produced quickly enough to match the consumption rates expected during intensive warfare, potentially leaving vital military installations vulnerable within days.