U.S. mortgage market shifts as conforming loans lose majority share

The U.S. mortgage market is experiencing a significant shift in composition, as conforming mortgages have fallen below 50% of Optimal Blue’s rate-lock volume. This marks the first time conforming loans have lost their majority share since at least January 2018.

Data analyzed by Griffin Funding shows that conforming loans, which accounted for 73.1% of product share in July 2020, dropped to 47% by July 2026. This decline is being offset by growth in the non-conforming sector, which includes jumbo and non-qualified mortgage (Non-QM) loans. The broader non-conforming bucket rose from 12.4% to nearly 21% between July 2024 and July 2026.

Specifically, Non-QM loans have seen substantial growth, rising from approximately 1.4% in August 2020 to over 11% by August 2026. While FHA and VA mortgage shares remained relatively stable, the market is becoming increasingly less concentrated in the GSE-eligible conforming channel.