US Natural Gas Futures Surge on Extreme Heat Forecasts

July natural‑gas futures on the NYMEX rose 3.79%, reaching a two‑and‑a‑half‑week high as weather models predict above‑average temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast from June 30 through July 4. The hotter outlook is expected to lift electricity demand for air‑conditioning, prompting utilities to burn more gas and tightening near‑term supply.

Inventories rose by 76 bcf last week, beating expectations, while daily US lower‑48 dry gas production hit 112 bcf, up 3.4% year‑over‑year. Net LNG exports to US terminals increased 0.8% week‑over‑week to 19.1 bcf. Global supply remains constrained by damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant—accounting for roughly 20% of worldwide LNG capacity—and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid regional conflict, limiting deliveries to Europe and Asia. European gas storage sits at just 47% of capacity, well below the five‑year seasonal average of 62%.

The EIA lifted its 2026 US dry gas production forecast to 111 bcf/day, while active drilling rigs rose modestly to 122, still below the February 2026 peak. US electricity generation in the lower‑48 fell 2.2% year‑over‑year in the week to June 20, even as output over the past year rose 2.45%.