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Global coal demand projected to hit record 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global coal demand will reach a record 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026, representing a 1.2% increase. This shift reverses previous projections of declining consumption.
The surge is primarily attributed to rising natural gas prices caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. In regions with dual-fuel capabilities, such as Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China, utilities are increasingly utilizing coal to generate electricity as a more cost-effective alternative to gas.
Regional demand varies significantly. India is expected to see a 4.2% increase in coal consumption, driven by industrial activity and rising electricity needs. Meanwhile, global coal production is projected to contract by 0.7% in 2026 following a historic peak in 2025.
The long-term outlook remains uncertain. If maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and natural gas prices stabilize, global coal demand could decline by 0.4% in 2027. However, continued restrictions on LNG flows could drive consumption even higher.
Entities
China · Europe · GE Vernova · Global Energy Monitor · India · International Energy Agency · Strait of Hormuz · U.S. Energy Information Administration · Wood Mackenzie
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 6 SOURCES] Global coal demand is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2026, reaching 8.94 billion tonnes. elineanoticias.com · sputniknews.cn · newsable.asianetnews.com · time.news · sapo.pt · +1 more
- [● 2 SOURCES] Global coal production is expected to decrease by 0.7% in 2026. newsable.asianetnews.com · time.news
- [● 2 SOURCES] If natural gas prices stabilize and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, coal demand could decline by 0.4% in 2027. newsable.asianetnews.com · www.deia.eus
- [● 6 SOURCES] Geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have increased natural gas prices, driving a shift toward coal-fired power. elineanoticias.com · sputniknews.cn · newsable.asianetnews.com · time.news · sapo.pt · +1 more
- [○ 1 SOURCE] India's coal demand is expected to rise by 4.2% in 2026, reaching 1,353 million tonnes. newsable.asianetnews.com