U.S. Obamacare enrollment drops 3 million as subsidies end and premiums rise

Federal data show that enrollment in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace fell by about 3 million people in February 2026, a 13 % decline from 22.1 million in February 2025 to 19.2 million. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services attributed part of the drop to a crackdown on fraudulent or “phantom” enrollments, but health analysts say the primary driver was the expiration of federal subsidies on Jan. 1, which caused double‑ or triple‑digit premium hikes that left many unable to pay their first bills.

Cynthia Cox, vice‑president of the ACA program at the research nonprofit KFF, said “real people lost their health insurance coverage” and linked the loss directly to the surge in premium costs. KFF projects enrollment could fall further, possibly reaching about 17.5 million by the end of 2026. The decline affects gig workers, farmers, hairstylists and other groups that rely on ACA plans for coverage, and it has heightened political debate over health‑care affordability ahead of the November elections.