US officials assess Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely before 2028

United States officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, marking a shift from previous understandings that President Xi Jinping aimed for military readiness by 2027.

Several factors contribute to this revised assessment, including delays in military preparedness caused by the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign. Additionally, Beijing is reportedly interested in observing the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Some Chinese officials hope the results might produce a government more willing to accept unification under Chinese control.

However, tensions may escalate if the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secures a fourth consecutive term, particularly if current President Lai Ching-te is re-elected. The DPP maintains Taiwan’s distinct identity, a stance that Beijing rejects, viewing the island as an inalienable part of its territory. One official noted that if such an election outcome occurs, “2028 becomes pretty sporty.”