US Senate delays cut odds for CLARITY Act crypto bill

Prediction‑market platforms show the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law falling sharply. The probability of passage before 2027 dropped from about 75% last week to 49% today, with odds for approval before August 2026 at 37% and before July 2026 at 14%. Analysts link the decline to a week‑long Senate recess, a crowded legislative calendar and competing high‑priority measures such as a housing package, a farm bill and a looming FISA deadline. Internal Republican disagreements over funding provisions have added further uncertainty about securing floor time before the August recess.

Despite the market shift, senators continue to work on a broader digital‑asset framework. Senator Cynthia Lummis said lawmakers plan to merge the Senate Banking Committee’s recent crypto bill with related legislation from the Senate Agriculture Committee to clarify the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s oversight role. The combined package is hoped to reach the Senate floor sometime this summer. The CLARITY Act previously cleared its committee with a bipartisan 15‑9 vote on May 14, indicating ongoing momentum for U.S. crypto regulation.