U.S. Senators Urge CFTC to Ban Wildfire Prediction Market Bets

Democratic senators, led by Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon, sent a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig on Aug. 3, 2026 urging the agency to restrict or prohibit prediction‑market contracts that reference wildfires. They argue that allowing profit from longer, hotter fires could create a perverse incentive for arson.

The lawmakers cite more than $1.2 million in wagers placed on offshore platforms such as Polymarket on the 2025 Eaton and Palisades fires in California. U.S.-based platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket’s domestic service already avoid wildfire contracts, while offshore sites sit largely outside CFTC jurisdiction. No concrete arson cases have been linked to these markets, but the senators want the CFTC to review its proposal on guardrails for such derivatives. A new play‑money platform, Wyldfyre, has also launched to aggregate forecasts without real financial stakes.