US Seniors' Benefits Projected to Consume Over Half of Federal Budget by 2036

A Joint Economic Committee report projects that non‑interest federal spending on Social Security and Medicare will rise from 45% to 52% of the budget over the next decade, putting seniors' benefits above the 50% threshold by 2036. The analysis notes that the United States is already running a $2 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026 and that transfers to seniors accounted for $350‑$520 billion of the 2025 deficit.

The report warns that the trajectory of these transfers is “problematic,” highlighting intergenerational inequities: more than 80% of taxes paid by the bottom 40% of households flow directly to seniors. With the Social Security and Medicare trust funds each less than seven years from insolvency, potential benefit cuts of up to 28% could begin in the early 2030s unless additional revenue or reforms are enacted. The worker‑to‑beneficiary ratio is expected to fall to 2.4 by 2035, further stressing the system.