US Social Security 2027 COLA Projected Around 3.8% Amid Cooling Inflation

Inflation data released for the 12 months ending in June showed consumer prices rising 3.5% year‑over‑year, down from 4.2% in May. The slowdown has led senior‑advocacy group the Senior Citizens League to estimate the 2027 Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) at about 3.8%, roughly a 1‑percentage‑point increase over the 2026 boost.

A 3.8% COLA would raise the average monthly Social Security check from an estimated $1,938 to about $2,011, an increase of roughly $74. The final COLA figure will be calculated using the CPI‑W for the third quarter and announced by the Social Security Administration in October.

Separate from the COLA projection, lawmakers are grappling with the long‑term solvency of the trust fund. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced the Promise Act, which directs a seven‑member board to draft legislation aimed at addressing the system’s shortfall.