US Social Security 2027 COLA projected at 3.6‑3.8% amid higher inflation

New forecasts from the AARP, the Senior Citizens League and the TSCL expect the 2027 Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) to rise between 3.6% and 3.8%. A 3.6‑3.8% increase would add roughly $75‑$80 to the average monthly benefit, lifting the typical payment from $2,071 to about $2,149.

The adjustment is calculated from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W) for July‑September, with the final figure to be announced in mid‑October after the September CPI report. June’s CPI showed a 3.5% year‑over‑year rise, cooler than May’s 4.2% peak, but still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Analysts warn that a larger COLA could deepen the Social Security trust fund’s fiscal shortfall, which is projected to become insolvent by 2032. A 3.8% COLA is estimated to add about $300 billion to the deficit over the next decade and could accelerate the fund’s depletion by three months, potentially triggering automatic benefit cuts if no legislative action is taken.