US Social Security COLA Forecast May Reach 4.7% Next Year

Analysts expect the Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) for next year to be around 4.7%, which would be the fourth‑largest increase since 1990. The projection is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W) data for the third quarter, while other estimates range from 3.8% to 4.7% depending on assumptions about gasoline and oil prices.

Retirees are advised to plan finances without counting on a large COLA. Financial planners recommend relying on existing retirement savings such as 401(k)s and IRAs, monitoring spending, and treating any COLA increase as a bonus rather than a primary budgeting assumption. Smaller COLA outcomes would still leave retirees dependent on other income sources, and lower inflation could mitigate cost pressures.