US Social Security Trust Fund Projected Depletion and 2027 COLA Increase Forecast

The 2025 Social Security Board of Trustees report warns that combined trust‑fund reserves will be exhausted by 2034. The Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) fund can pay 100 % of scheduled benefits only through 2033, after which payments could fall to about 77 %. The Disability Insurance (DI) fund remains fully funded through 2099, but overall shortfalls mean future benefits may be reduced unless Congress acts. The report notes a declining worker‑to‑beneficiary ratio, now 2.7 workers per retiree, heightening financial pressure on the system.

Separately, the Senior Citizens League projects a 3.9 % cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) for 2027, raising the average monthly Social Security check by roughly $81. While a larger COLA could help retirees keep pace with inflation, advocates warn that rising costs for housing, utilities, food, and especially health care may still erode purchasing power. The organization also criticizes proposals to replace the current COLA formula with a chained CPI index, arguing such changes could effectively cut benefits.

Both analyses underscore growing concerns about the program’s solvency and the need for legislative reforms to sustain retiree benefits.