US Social Security trust fund projected to run dry by 2032

The 2026 trustees report released in June projects that the Social Security Old‑Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, three months earlier than previously forecast. At that point, incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78 % of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits, implying an automatic reduction of roughly 22 % for all beneficiaries unless Congress changes the law. The report also notes that Medicare’s hospital‑insurance (Part A) fund will be unable to pay full benefits after the second quarter of 2033. Demographic trends – an aging population, lower birth rates and reduced immigration – combined with policy changes such as the 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax cuts, are cited as key drivers of the shortfall. Over 70 million Americans receive Social Security payments, and about 40 % of seniors rely on it for at least half of their income. Lawmakers, including Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano and AARP CEO Myechia Minter‑Jordan, have urged swift congressional action to avoid the projected cuts, which could average $500 per month for retirees and vary by state.