US Tariff Shift Threatens Korea's 15% Trade Cap

The 10% "global" tariff imposed by the Trump administration under Section 122 ends on 24 May, prompting the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to prepare new duties under Section 301. The United States is investigating “structural over‑production” and “forced labour” in multiple countries, with South Korea included in both probes. A forced‑labour tariff of roughly 12.5‑13% has already been announced for Korea, while the over‑production levy has yet to be detailed.

Both measures could push the total duty above the 15% ceiling that Washington and Seoul agreed to in July 2023. USTR chief Jameson Greer said the agency will “respect the tariff ceiling” previously negotiated, but analysts warn that any “15% + α” tariff would breach the bilateral pact and strain the Korean economy. The USTR has already applied a 25% Section 301 duty on Brazil, illustrating its willingness to use the authority beyond the Korea‑specific limit.