U.S. Traders Bypass Polymarket Ban to Trade $571 Million in Political Contracts

U.S.-linked crypto wallets traded roughly $571 million in political prediction contracts on Polymarket over the past year, despite the platform’s settlement with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that required it to block American users. Researchers at Allium found that U.S. traders were the largest national cohort on the platform, surpassing Hong Kong, and that their activity was heavily weighted toward foreign‑conflict markets—contracts tied to geopolitical tensions, wars and diplomatic events—while election‑related contracts made up a smaller share.

The continued U.S. participation is facilitated by VPNs, decentralized front‑ends and on‑chain wallet anonymity, allowing traders to bypass geographic restrictions. The data arrives as Polymarket faces a broader CFTC investigation and heightened scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers, including Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis, as well as state‑level lawsuits targeting prediction‑market operators. European regulators have also warned the platform about potential breaches of EU financial rules. The findings highlight challenges for regulators seeking to enforce national bans on decentralized crypto services and raise questions about future compliance requirements for offshore prediction markets.