Venezuela economy projected to grow 6.5% amid political transition

Venezuela's economy is projected to grow by 6.5% by the end of 2026, according to the Institute of Economic and Social Research at Universidad Católica Andrés Bello (IIES-UCAB). This growth is expected to be widespread across all productive sectors, with oil production estimated to expand by nearly 15% and non-oil sectors by 6%. Despite this upward trend, economic activity remains 62% lower than pre-2014 levels.

The country's recent economic landscape has been shaped by significant disruptions, including a U.S. military action on January 3 that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores, and a major earthquake on June 24 that caused over 6,000 deaths and approximately $20 billion in material losses. Experts note that growth projections have been adjusted downward due to the seismic impact, low private investment, and challenges in macroeconomic stabilization management.

Public perception remains critical. A survey by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg indicates that 70% of Venezuelans view the country's economic situation as poor, with only 36% believing it will improve in the next six months. Additionally, 57.9% of respondents describe the current government, led by designated president Delcy Rodríguez, as bad or very bad. There is also significant public concern regarding corruption and the potential for further political instability.