Victoria state election trends analyzed ahead of 2026 vote

An analysis of the 2022 Victorian state election results highlights shifting political trends ahead of the 2026 election. While the Labor Party secured a significant victory in 2022, recent years have seen the party face declining approval ratings and multiple leadership changes.

Data from 2022 polling booths indicates early signs of instability in Labor’s northern heartland. Significant swings toward the Liberal Party and various minor parties were recorded in suburbs such as Thomastown, Mill Park, Broadmeadows, and Greenvale. In Greenvale, a culturally diverse area, Labor faced substantial swings that benefited the Liberals, conservative independents, and other minor political groups.

Current polling suggests a potential shift in power, with some projections indicating the Liberal Party, potentially led by Jess Wilson, could replace Labor in government.