Vietnam economy projected to surpass Thailand in GDP by 2029

The economic gap between Vietnam and Thailand is narrowing as Vietnam approaches surpassing its neighbor in GDP scale. According to World Bank data, Vietnam's GDP is projected to reach approximately $514.7 billion in 2025, representing about 89% of Thailand's $577 billion economy.

IMF World Economic Outlook projections suggest that Vietnam may maintain significantly higher growth rates in the medium term compared to Thailand, which remains among the slower-growing economies in Southeast Asia. While Thailand's GDP was many times larger than Vietnam's in 2000, the trajectory is shifting.

Based on current IMF forecasts, the two economies could swap positions around 2029, with Vietnam's nominal GDP reaching $631 billion and Thailand's at $624 billion. However, these figures remain subject to change based on inflation, population, and exchange rate fluctuations. In 2025, Vietnam's growth is estimated at 8% by the World Bank, compared to 2.4% for Thailand.