Vietnam Ministry of Finance updates 2026 inflation forecasts

Vietnam's Ministry of Finance has released updated inflation scenarios for the final quarter of 2026. The Ministry forecasts inflation will rise between 4.5% and 4.8%, while the State Bank of Vietnam expects an average annual inflation rate of 4.5% to 5%. International organizations have provided a broader range of 4.2% to 5.5%.

Several factors are expected to exert upward pressure on domestic prices, including fluctuations in global energy and raw material costs, exchange rate risks, and potential supply chain disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade and tariff policies. Additionally, increased public investment and seasonal rises in production and consumption during the year-end period may drive up demand for construction materials, machinery, and various goods and services.

To manage these pressures, the Ministry of Finance has recommended close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the macroeconomy and maintain growth capacity. The State Bank of Vietnam plans to monitor exchange rates, interest rates, and international capital flows to mitigate imported inflation. Furthermore, the Ministry of Finance will continue implementing tax and fee exemptions or extensions to reduce input costs for businesses and support citizens.