Vietnam releases updated 2025 climate change scenarios

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has released the updated 2025 Climate Change Scenarios for Vietnam. Developed by the Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Sciences, the report incorporates the latest research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assist in policy planning, risk assessment, and adaptation strategies.

The updated version introduces new dimensions, including urban climate scenarios, global warming level (GWL) assessments, and flood risk evaluations. The report analyzes three primary pathways: low emissions (SSP1-2.6) focused on sustainable development and net-zero goals, medium emissions (SSP2-4.5), and high emissions (SSP3-7.0) reflecting a lack of strong climate policies.

Projections indicate an increase in extreme weather events. Under a 1.5°C warming threshold, the number of hot days (above 35°C) is expected to increase by 10 to 30 days. At higher warming levels of 3°C to 4°C, the increase could exceed 50 days per year in parts of Central and Southern Vietnam. In major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, average annual temperatures could rise by up to 3.4°C by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios, with heatwaves becoming longer and more frequent.