Vietnam rice exports projected to recover by late 2026

Vietnam is anticipating a recovery in its rice export sector toward the end of 2026, driven by rising international prices and increased global demand. While total export earnings for the year are projected at approximately $3.9 billion—a 4% decline from the previous year due to lower prices in the first half—a price uptick observed in July is expected to bolster revenue in the coming months.

Key markets driving this growth include the Philippines, which is expected to import 5.6 million tonnes to bolster reserves, and China, which is increasing imports of broken rice for animal feed. Other potential growth areas include Nigeria and Kenya. Additionally, high-quality, low-emission certified rice is seeing strong demand in Japan, the European Union, and Australia, fetching prices over $1,000 per tonne.

Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain. The Philippines is considering additional safeguard duties on rice imports that could exceed 35%, potentially impacting Vietnamese exports to that market.