Vietnam banking and retail sectors show mixed Q3 2026 outlook

The Vietnamese banking and retail sectors are showing varied performance trends heading into the third quarter of 2026. MBS Research forecasts significant profit growth for retail giants such as Mobile World Group (MWG) and Digiworld (DGW), driven by an electronics replacement cycle and 0% installment policies, despite cautious consumer sentiment due to inflation.

In the banking sector, credit growth is being driven largely by corporate entities. Agribank reported corporate debt increasing by 8.74% since the start of the year, while Vietcombank saw priority sector credit rise by 11%. However, banks are facing rising capital costs; interest expenses for 27 listed banks rose 49% in the first half of 2026, outpacing interest income growth of 33.6%, which puts pressure on net interest margins (NIM).

Profit forecasts for major banks in Q3 2026 remain positive. Vietcombank is expected to earn approximately 11,653 billion VND, a 29.1% increase, while VietinBank is projected to reach 10,843 billion VND, up 27.4%. VPBank is forecasted to see a 26.6% profit increase, though it faces NIM compression due to high capital costs. Techcombank is expected to see a 17.5% rise in profits.