Vietnam's 2026 trade deficit coexists with stable USD/VND exchange rate

Vietnam's textile and garment sector aims to reach $17.81 billion in export value in the first five months of 2026. At the same time, the country recorded a trade deficit of $13.8 billion during the same period. Despite the large import gap, the Vietnamese dong remained stable, trading between 26,310 and 26,360 per US dollar in May. Analysts attribute the steadiness to a lower U.S. dollar index, a roughly 20 % drop in Brent crude prices, and a modest swap spread of 0‑3 % that helps curb upward pressure on the currency. They note that trade‑balance figures do not immediately translate into foreign‑exchange pressure, as actual FX flows depend on payment timing and capital inflows, such as FDI disbursements. However, they warn that a prolonged deficit could eventually strain the dong and keep domestic interest rates high.