Vitol CEO warns of unsustainable gap in China's crude oil imports

Vitol CEO Russell Hardy has warned that the significant gap in China’s crude oil imports is unsustainable. Following a period of heavy stockpiling in 2025, where imports reached approximately 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd), Chinese imports dropped to roughly 6 million bpd by mid-2026 as the country began drawing down commercial and strategic petroleum reserves.

Hardy noted that this drawdown, which has exceeded 1 million bpd, creates a ticking clock for the domestic refining sector. Projections suggest China may need to ramp imports back above 13 million bpd later in 2026 to avoid supply constraints.

While China's buying may accelerate, Hardy also anticipates a 1.5 million bpd contraction in overall global oil demand for 2026 compared to 2025. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to impact supply chains, with approximately 10 million bpd of oil and products still transiting the Strait of Hormuz and 2-3 million bpd of Saudi exports affected by disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb strait.