Water Disputes Escalate Risks in South China Sea and Sahel

Mediation efforts are intensifying to defuse mounting tensions over vital maritime routes in the South China Sea, where competing territorial claims threaten one‑third of global shipping. ASEAN‑facilitated talks aim to create a code of conduct, but doubts remain about the parties' commitment to uphold any agreement.

At the same time, water scarcity is amplifying conflict risk across the Sahel region of Africa, where drought, desertification and competition for dwindling water sources have intensified farmer‑herder clashes and enabled extremist groups to weaponise access to wells. Experts warn that worsening climate pressures could trigger further instability in the coming years.