West African Cocoa Supply Worries Push Prices to Six‑Month High

Cocoa prices surged in early June, with New York cocoa up 5.09% to +293 and London cocoa rising 5.35% to +228, the highest levels in six‑ and seven‑month spans respectively. The jump follows heavy rainfall in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which has hampered farm access, port operations and raised fears of brown‑rot and black‑pod disease. Early assessments suggest the 2026/27 Ivorian crop could fall 18% to about 1.8 million mt, while Ghana has cut the official farmer price for the 2025/26 season by nearly 30 %. A potential El Niño, flagged by Japan’s meteorological agency and a 67% chance of a “Super” event from NOAA, could further stress West African cocoa trees. Despite the price surge, global cocoa inventories remain high, with ICE stocks at over 3 million bags, and Ivory Coast has already reported a 20% increase in arrivals this season. These supply concerns are supporting the recent market rally.