Wheat price analysis examines Australian buyer reactions to CBOT moves

An analysis of nearly 11 years of wheat price data, spanning from September 2015 to August 2026, investigates whether Australian wheat buyers pass on price decreases more rapidly than price increases.

The study compares Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures, converted to Australian dollars, against physical wheat prices at several Australian locations, including Adelaide, Port Lincoln, Portland, Geelong, Brisbane, Port Kembla, and Kwinana. To ensure accuracy despite time zone differences, the study compares CBOT moves to the Australian cash price on the following trading day.

The research focused on major market shifts exceeding A$10/t. The dataset included 157 major rallies with an average value of A$16.75/t and 113 major falls with an average value of A$16.36/t.