Wheat yields in Hungary face risks from climate change

Researchers from the Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) Meteorological Department, Péter Szabó and Rita Pongrácz, are investigating how climate change will impact wheat cultivation in Hungary. While wheat has historically been relatively resilient to warming, its yield is heavily dependent on the timing of precipitation during critical growth phases.

Recent data highlights a significant decline in productivity. Between 2015 and 2024, the national average yield was approximately 5,350 kg per hectare. However, preliminary data for the current period shows a drop to 4,300 kg per hectare, the lowest value since 2012. This decline is attributed to insufficient rainfall following the tillering stage.

Climate warming is also shifting the wheat developmental cycle earlier. To account for this, researchers are using heat summation—the cumulative effect of temperatures above a certain threshold—rather than fixed calendar dates to study the plant's growth stages. Additionally, while drought is a risk, excessive moisture during warm periods can increase the prevalence of fungal diseases, such as rust infections.