Europe winter forecast predicts below-average snowfall

New seasonal meteorological forecasts for the 2026/2027 winter indicate that much of Europe may experience below-average snowfall. An analysis of six seasonal models, published by Severe Weather Europe, suggests that Western, Central, and Southern Europe are likely to see reduced precipitation.

The Balkan region, Scandinavia, and parts of Central Europe are expected to face the most significant deficits. Specifically, October updates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show a notable downward revision in expected snow for Southern Europe and the Balkans, with the expected deficit increasing from 4.7 centimeters in September to 12.1 centimeters in October.

Meteorologists attribute these patterns to the strong El Niño phenomenon, which is altering global atmospheric circulation. While most of the continent faces a drier winter, some models suggest that more consistent snowfall could occur in the second half of the season, particularly in Northeastern Europe and certain northern mountain regions, potentially driven by disruptions in the polar vortex.