Wintermute warns crypto altseason to narrow as institutions focus on fewer tokens

Wintermute’s first‑half 2026 OTC flow report shows institutional counterparties generated 72% of spot trading flow across all tokens on its desk, the highest level recorded. This marks an increase from 61% in the second half of 2025 and 59% in the first half of 2025.

The data indicate that institutional activity is concentrating on a smaller basket of assets and fades quickly after price‑and‑volume spikes—about one day—while retail participation remains elevated for roughly three days. The number of unique tokens traded by institutional counterparties grew only 24% between H1 2024 and H1 2026, compared with a 76% rise among retail clients.

Analysts cite similar concentration trends: CryptoQuant data showed the ten largest non‑stablecoin altcoins accounting for about 80.5% of market capitalization, and Kaiko reported the ten biggest altcoins representing 63% of trading volume in mid‑2025. Wintermute cautions that future altcoin rallies are likely to be narrower, with fewer winners and shorter‑lived momentum.