Wood Mackenzie: Aging renewables to drive 2.5 TW replacement demand

A report by Wood Mackenzie indicates that more than 2.5 TW of aging wind and solar projects could require decommissioning or repowering by the 2040s. This trend is expected to create a significant new wave of demand for renewable installations, even as overall power demand growth stabilizes.

Currently, the global wind and solar fleet exceeds 3.5 TW of operational capacity. As first-generation projects reach the end of their design lives, owners must choose whether to retire assets, extend their operating life, or repower sites with newer technology. Repowering offers several advantages, including established grid connections, existing planning approvals, and community acceptance, which can allow projects to reach the market faster than greenfield developments.

Decommissioning is already accelerating in the wind sector, with over 30 GW of capacity expected to be taken offline globally by the end of 2026. While solar deployment began later than wind, the report predicts that the aging solar fleet will overtake wind in decommissioning volume before 2040. The transition to newer equipment could significantly impact renewable energy targets, power prices, and the broader economics of the energy transition.