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[BUSINESS] · United States · 78 sources

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World Bank warns of rising global commodity prices through 2027

The World Bank projects a 23% increase in global commodity prices in 2026, driven by geopolitical conflicts, energy supply disruptions, and extreme weather patterns like El Niño.

Energy prices are expected to rise by 32% this year, with Brent crude oil projected to average $91 or $92 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025. Global oil supply is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2026, marking the steepest decline in four decades excluding the 2020 pandemic. Under an adverse scenario involving escalated conflict in the Middle East or damage to Russian oil infrastructure, Brent crude could reach $105 per barrel in 2027.

Food commodity prices are anticipated to rise by approximately 10% in 2026 and an additional 7% in 2027, representing a cumulative increase of 18% compared to 2025. Such price surges could trigger a major food crisis, potentially pushing millions more into extreme poverty. Additionally, fertilizer prices are expected to increase by 14% in 2026, while industrial metal prices are projected to rise by 25% due to demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors.

Entities

Ayhan Kose · Brent crude · El Niño · Iran · Middle East · Russia · Strait of Hormuz · United States · World Bank · World Bank Group

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